Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
